The Gambler Memo - Genesis
Starting the Year differently
Welcome to my first Gambler memo issue.
Sunday is a day when between moments of rest and visits to relatives, there is enough time left to discover something new.
Well I hope my memos fall into this category.
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Genesis, or why we are here
Hello everyone, I am Valerio Molinari and this is my first step into the fascinating world of content creators.
I've always loved writing. When I was a kid it was poetry, in college it became short stories, reflections.While my writing has changed over time, what has remained the same is what writing represents to me, and what I can represent abstractly and not through writing.
After reading Packy’s essay (I recommend that you subscribe to his newsletter) on the great online game, I couldn't help but see an opportunity that could make it easier for me to meet the worlds I care most about: The first is investments; I started "playing" with my first savings a few years ago, read several books, analyzed public and private companies, consumer trends and how they shift suddenly.
Although I'm not a veteran, I find it a great exercise to make my mental muscles elastic, trying to question every assumption and trying to analyze the whys, the can'ts, and the foundational advances we will face over the decades..
The second one is about writing: in a digitized world, writing helps to reach unthinkable audiences, to express one's ideas and to bring clarity in one's thought processes, very often finding some connections/models in the way we think that help us not only in work but in all spheres of our existence.
Trading stocks for a few years now, I most certainly am not an expert, yet; but rather a guy who loves to learn, fast.
If there is one thing I have learned, it is to focus on asymmetrical bets, those in which the probability of a positive outcome are greater than the inverse and therefore justify the risk.
You don't have to be a Nobel Prize winner, or a PhD student in mathematics to understand the scope of such reasoning.
Gamblers, whether we are talking about poker, black-jack, business, relationships, or your personal reputation; find pleasure in betting in the idea that the mere hope of a possible event/outcome is enough to justify the stakes, in case of winning as well as losing.
Fear, greed, in short: emotions that cloud the otherwise rational judgment of each individual.
High level gamblers on the other hand, are constantly looking for asymmetrical bets, they do not let themselves be carried away by emotions, they know that losing is part of the game (even if nobody likes to lose) and that winning is nothing more than a function of incentives, personality, perspectives, constraints and resources as well as pure probability.
So here is my asymmetrical bet: to use the leverage offered by the internet to communicate my ideas about what constantly keeps my mind engaged throughout the day: Emerging Trends, Crypto, Culture, and of course, our place in it all as individuals trying to imagine what our world will look like tomorrow.
This is all part of a long-term vision where reputation, integrity, and credibility are my stakes.
The beauty of this kind of bet is easily seen in the trade off it offers: if it doesn't take off, the downside is that no one will be interested in what I have to say, but if there is even one person who will take the time to read me, their opinion will be the brick on which I will build what is to come.
If, on the contrary, everything goes the right way, the upside is unlimited: I will be pushed to feed my curiosity, to search for innovative solutions, I will train my mental muscles, and much more important, I will make new friends (you), because the way I see it, communities are the greatest lever existing on this planet.
"You can't expect to win the jackpot if you don't put a few pennies in the machine." Flip Wilson
Gambling developed in parallel with early human civilizations. The oldest forms of gambling can be dated back to around 3000 BC, in fact it was widespread in ancient Egypt and its function, originally, was closely linked to the magical-religious sphere. Only in a second moment it began to be used for reasons less dependent on sacredness and divine, and then it began to spread more and more among the population.
Gambling was also practiced in classical Greece, especially among the more educated social classes. It was widely practiced in Rome, especially in the imperial period, both in the richest and most powerful men of the time as in the most common ‘civis romanus’. Starting from the Middle Ages many variants of the game of dice were developed, among which the most common in Italy was the zara, best known for being cited by Dante in the sixth canto of Purgatory.
Starting from the 19th century the first modern gambling houses or casinos were built, which began to have an increasing diffusion and popularity especially after two important creations: the modern roulette, invented in 1842 by the French François Blanc, and the poker-machine (mainly known as slot-machine) patented in 1895 by the American Charles Fey".
I'll spare you the remaining 100+ years of history, but if you'll allow me to summarize in a few lines, what we find coming to the present day between wall street and silicon valley, through startup founders, the Solo-Preneurs of the creator economy, and those who are part of what Li Jin has wonderfully coined as the "passion economy" is a principle of verisimilitude.
The concept of risk has taken on new hues until it has come to be recognized as something personal, cultural, but inevitable.
In different ways, all of us are gamblers, though the exact meaning has changed over the centuries as have its protagonists.
I've lived years of my life in fear of this phantom "risk," but now I feel the time has come to face it, ready to learn whatever lessons this journey will teach me.
It's yet another newsletter, isn't it? At first glance it might seem so.
I've always been a fan of social relationships, I don't consider myself an introvert, so much so that it's probably been too many outings with my friends (my responsibility) over the years that have kept me away from the screen and from doing something I really care about: Writing.
With so many nights out with friends, however, I've had the opportunity to discover what we all have in common: our authenticity.
Yes, what unites us, and this is not a joke, is the fact that we are all different in some particular way.
Sure, those who like sports will find similarities in those who watch sports, those who like to read will probably find comfort in chatting with their Tuesday book club buddy, but everyone, and I mean everyone, retains their authenticity.
Authenticity is the brand for marketing agencies, it's the Liverpool fans singing "You'll never walk alone," it's the champagne for the French, but first and foremost, authenticity is us, in the flesh.
Although I never thought so before I started writing this genesis or #1 gambler memo, I have always been a gambler. I've always believed that you don't need to take over the path you chose years before, but rather be able to change it the moment your gut clearly tells you what's right.
I'm sure the future will still see me as in the previous years of my career, in Finance as in Marketing, or in close contact with startups but with writing as a new "ace up my sleeve" to accompany me and at the same time with the mission to tell you in words a different vision of the world, mine, pure and authentic.
There is nothing better when facing a certain change, such as the search for new habits than manifesting this will in public so that I can be responsible for it.
So this is the first of my bets, the first of a long series; I hope you'll be brave enough to accept my stakes. In the end a bet is a bet, you win, you lose, you learn, but in the meantime you enjoy the show.
Let's all end the year the way we started it, looking forward and back, trying to set goals for the new one. I've compiled a list of mine.
How about you?
Let's Gamble in 2022. We'll see you soon.
A special thanks to my friend Alejandro (mostly known as Kairon) for his honest feedback and for pushing me to try, test and learn!